Trading Reference Card ▼ click to toggle
Losing Streaks (11yr, regime)
| Days | Freq | Avg Loss | Worst | Verdict |
|---|
| 1d | 128x | -1.8% | -17.6% | routine |
| 2d | 49x | -4.0% | -16.7% | common |
| 3d | 20x | -4.9% | -10.7% | ~1/month |
| 4d | 11x | -9.4% | -22.7% | ~1/2mo |
| 5d | 5x | -10.5% | -15.0% | ~1/6mo |
| 8d | 1x | -12.2% | -12.2% | 1x/11yr |
| 10d | 1x | -10.4% | -10.4% | 1x/11yr |
Winning Streaks (11yr, regime)
| Days | Freq | Avg Gain | Best |
|---|
| 1d | 90x | +2.2% | +7.5% |
| 2d | 52x | +4.6% | +15.1% |
| 3d | 28x | +6.2% | +15.5% |
| 4d | 24x | +8.5% | +21.2% |
| 5d | 10x | +8.2% | +14.9% |
| 6-8d | 10x | +15.3% | +26.3% |
| 12d | 1x | +26.3% | +26.3% |
Win Rate
57.9%
514/887 days
Monthly Win
75%
42/56 months
Max Streak Loss
-22.7%
4d, 2025-04
Max DD
-31.0%
avg recovery ~9d
RULES:
3連敗 = 月1で普通 /
5連敗 = 半年に1回 /
6連敗以上 = 年1回以下の稀なイベント（最悪10連敗） /
累積-23%超 = 過去にない異常値 /
HALT中は従う（過去に無視してたら-49%）